2009. február 25., szerda

My sovereignty

Well, nowadays I didn't manage to post anything which gained your favour. I don't really care, if I have to I will be an Apostate for my entire life but I stick to my opinion. I may be considered secretly or openly feeble minded but it is not really my business. 

I have to add that being weak minded is not so horrible as it sounds. Today we discussed the Hungarian Protection War (formerly called Freedom Fight) of 1848-1849 and we briefly talked about Ferdinand V. He was a Hungarian king between 1835-1848 and he was considered as mentally weak according to the history book we use. I would argue with that because he was able to speak 6 languages fluently, he was a talented musician and a good historian so probably as a person I could have got along with him well but he was a horrible politician. I have read/heard 3 (famous) anecdotes about him.

  1. In 1848 there were 2 riots, one in March and one in October. At the second, he asked Chancellor Metternich why they were making such a noise. The chancellor answered that they were rioting and Ferdinand V asked: Really? Are they allowed to do so?

  2. According to nasty rumours his only powerful instruction was when he ordered his luch and he wanted dumplings. The chef told him that he couldn't cook it because some components were missing or something like that. Ferdinand became upset and he said: I am the Emperor and I want dumplings!!

  3. The last one happened after his deposal (2nd December 1848). In the 1860s and 1870s Germans and Italians wanted to create their states. There were 2 plans for a German unity and Prussia and the Habsburgs had a battle at Königgrätz in 1866 which was lost from the Habsburgs point of view, Ferdinand ironically said: Even I could do that.

2009. február 23., hétfő

First anger post ever

Nowadays I have been quite busy so I was glad when I could sit down a bit and surf on the net. I was checking World news to relax and absorb information. Maybe I should try surfing on the water because I wouldn't be so outraged. I read it on the website of New York Times. I also copy simplified version of the article. The only difference is that you can't see our Prime Minister's portrait.

U.S. Debt Gains on Hungary's

Based on the costs of fiscal stimulus and the bank bailout, the federal government’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product is heading much higher. By 2011, it may equal Hungary’s current ratio — which skyrocketed due to profligate spending and remnants of centrally planned waste.

While other factors are important, that suggests the credit quality of currently top-rated Treasury debt may trend down more toward the quality of Hungary’s government debt, which is nearer the bottom of the investment grade pecking order. That’s not a complete disaster, but it means Treasuries won’t really be a safe investment, either.

Assuming deficit projections by the Congressional Budget Office for the 2009 and 2010 fiscal years are right, and adding the cost of the stimulus plan, the bank rescue plan and borrowing costs, public debt would rise from 41 percent of G.D.P. in September 2008 to about 70 percent of G.D.P. three years later. That is roughly in line with Hungary’s December 2008 ratio.

After 2011, America’s debt-to-G.D.P. ratio is expected to decline again. The budget office projects deficits of less than 2 percent of G.D.P. after 2012, and the capital injected into the banking system under the government’s bailout plans should start to produce some returns for taxpayers around that time.

There are considerable downside risks. The budget office’s projections are based on optimistic assumptions: that growth averages 4 percent annually from 2011 through 2014, that the Bush tax cuts and alternative minimum tax relief all expire in December 2010, and that discretionary spending increases only in line with inflation after 2010.

The falling debt projection also assumes that none of the costs under the stimulus plan migrate into annual spending after 2010.

Should the recession deepen, or persist beyond 2010, higher budget deficits could become entrenched. Finally, the projection assumes interest rates in the United States remain low. With Treasury bond maturities now averaging only 48 months, higher interest rates would rapidly feed into higher borrowing costs and budget deficits.

“No European government has done anything as boneheaded as we have,” Ferenc Gyurcsany, Hungary’s prime minister, said of his country’s fiscal policy in May 2006. By 2012, United States policy makers may be echoing his words.

China’s Bargain?

China’s $25 billion oil purchase agreement with Russia trades cash for bargain-priced oil over 20 years. That solves a chunk of China’s long-term supply problem. Russia may be politically unreliable, but the advantages of the deal make it well worth the risk.

In return for $25 billion in loans, China will get a total of about 2.2 billion barrels of oil over 20 years. Including interest at 5 percent, that equates to a price of $17.40 a barrel over the period, a bargain when the longest New York Mercantile Exchange futures contract, for December 2017, sells at $73.22 a barrel.

The contract covers about 8 percent of China’s current oil imports, which are expected to increase sharply in coming years. The Chinese authorities regard long-term oil supplies as a key matter of national security, and are not prepared to rely more than modestly on the international spot market.

Hence in recent years, Chinese oil companies have invested in a number of African countries to line up supplies, and have had lengthy discussions with oil-rich but unreliable Venezuela. Given its energy concerns, a 20-year contact with even the erratically governed Russia could be regarded as only moderately risky.

Russian oil companies may be less likely to default on a deal with China, which takes a strong stance in most international matters, than they would be on an equivalent obligation to the more passive European Union, for example. Russia gets the capital needed to upgrade its oil industry and establishes a long-term relationship with a large and growing customer.

Even the low equivalent price of this contract probably represents a profit considering Russia’s low extraction costs. It also provides guaranteed demand in case of an oil glut.

This looks like a good deal for both sides, but Russia’s cash flow needs and the fall in oil prices seem to have given Chinese negotiators the advantage.

I wrote my opinion about this article but I felt it too strong so I removed it. Anyway I tell you a note to the Hungarian wastes: due to Obama's bailout and the Iraq War costs roughly $16000 per capita. I don't have so much debt. :) I had a feeling that the article writer was sending a message to Obama that he should be careful because the US may end up like Hungary. If it happens I won't feel sorry because 1, this article 2, they caused this crisis.

It is the first post ever I wrote with anger. I am fine by the way.

2009. február 18., szerda


Well, it seems I start to understand Coordinate-geometry but I would lie if I said my knowledge is close to optimal. My last test was 2 out of 5 so I think that's the moment when I have to give up my dreams about Maths 5 in my report book finally and concentrate on protecting my 4. It is not going to be easy though.

However I have been living my 3rd revival at Spanish. Yesterday I held a presentation about México and I got 5 to it. I was surprised how cool things I can say if I want. I used words as executed by head shot (fusilar), Viceroyality of New Spain (Virreinato de la Nueva España). Well, I tell you the execution story because it has conenction with Hungary in some way. The executed guy was Maximilian of Habsburg (Emperor of México) who was the younger brother of Franz Joseph who was the Emperor of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy.

It was snowing here quite a lot in the last 2 days and I would like to show a photo from my window. It may look very artistic but I just can't sue the camera properly. I made it last evening when it was heavily snowing.

Today I was reassuring everyone again that I am still quite conservative. On History we had a kind of debate class and it was about the politics in Hungary in the 1840s. There were 4 significant parties in that time and we had to vote for one according to its program. I didn't vote for the most conservative one though but I vote for a slightly conservative. I was a lonely conservative. In my class the radical reformers and the liberals were in majority (4-4) .

Tomorrow I will have a good day, I have only 2 lessons because my English teachers are absent. On Tour Guiding the teacher was the tour guide who we had in Scotland. I was a bit surprised. At first I didn't recognise her though.

I am very exhausted. Luckily this time It wasn't my turn to be the goalkeeper in the class team but next week probably I will.

2009. február 11., szerda

Top Secret revealed

I think it is the best time to reveal our Top Secret plan which was made by my buddy (Ádám) and myself because it was revealed today at school. We have the possibility to hand in drafts for our classtrip in May and we were working on 2 drafts.

I am thinking whether I have taken up so much tasks this year. I can bear it now but I am curious whether I will bear it in April when I will be less fresh and I will have to invest extra energy on my first tourism Exam. We will see... As Harley said: hard work pays off.

Today I was playing football in the class team against the teachers' team. We won 8-3 but I got 2 easy goals but I made some nice saves as well so I can say I was doing well but nothing extraordinary. I also got back my Biology test and I got 59%. I was very satisfied with it and I was the second best in my group which was a kind of surprise. Yesterday I got back my Statistics-Probability great test and finally I managed to be the best in the group. I got 101.5%. You know I am a loser kind of person. I have been second 4 times at chess on local contests and twice victory was in my hands and I let it go. I was second at Maths once, I was second at swimming a long time ago when I could swim better. It wasn't a serious contest though. At table tennis I can lose sets for 9-4 or 10-6 leads. So I am always the second and I am so happy when rarely I can be the first. So I am realable among the good or average ones but it is rare when I do outstandingly. The only exception is History on the positive side and Biology on the negative side however I don't think to Biology as failure. It is interesting to mention that it is only the second occasion I have reached more than 100% in almost 12 years. I let you guess which subject it was but you won't find it out. If you say history you are on the wrong path because it was CHEMISTRY. I got 120% once at elementary school at it. Thank you for reading few hundred pages from my autobiography.

I have to add that I am not entirely satisfied with Maths because I made the usual Ropi-kind of mistakes (for example: I substitued the wrong number to an equation).

2009. február 4., szerda

Tourism and sickness

I am sick. On Monday I felt something is not okay with me, on Tuesday I felt really bad at school and last night and today morning I felt horrible so I wasn't going to school today. According to the doctor I should not attent school this week but probably I will go again tomorrow since I hate doing a lot extra work. I already skipped a Biology test. I am quite pale but I am usually. So I am not planning to rest.

Yesterday during my suffering I had my first tour guide class. We studied the basic terms of tourism, about foods and beverages (mainly about wines) and we discussed the vineyards in Hungary. Hungarian wines are quite famous. For example Tokaji Aszu is really famous and even more expensive. Louis XIV said This is the wine of kings and the king of all wines.